09What agents do
Prediction Markets and Polymarket
Researching a market and placing an order are two capabilities, kept apart by design.
Motes' agent vision includes prediction-market intelligence and authorised execution on accessible venues, including a prospective Polymarket integration. Two capabilities stay distinct: researching a market and placing an order.
Research layer
An agent can review public information, evaluate available market definitions, compare quoted prices with internally estimated probabilities, and present a rationale together with its uncertainty. Such estimates can be wrong, sensitive to source quality, or poorly calibrated. An attractive probability estimate is not a guaranteed edge.
Execution layer
Where supported, you may separately authorise prediction-market actions through venue-specific signing, order and funding interfaces. The integration verifies account compatibility, the required network or settlement asset, order type, cancellations, position accounting, market resolution and applicable geographical rules.
Why venue settlement matters
A Robinhood Chain smart account does not inherently execute orders on another venue's order book or settlement network. A supported integration may require distinct accounts, signatures, bridges or routes. Each additional route brings its own custody, settlement, counterparty and bridging assumptions. No claim of universal single-chain settlement is made.
| Prediction feature | Design approach |
|---|---|
| Market data | Public feeds and verified market identifiers |
| Outcome analysis | Probabilistic estimates with uncertainty |
| Market selection | User-approved categories and markets |
| Order execution | Explicit opt-in and legal or venue eligibility |
| Exposure limits | Per-market and total event budget |
| Exit rules | Cancel or close where supported; settlement-aware |
| Event settlement | Venue-reported resolution and account reconciliation |